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If Only, Neal Roese's book
Curriculum Vitae
Papers for Download
Counterfactual Research News
Counterfactual
Thinking
Counterfactual thoughts focus on what might have been, i.e., alternatives to
past outcomes. Whenever you wonder about a fork in the road, how a
different choice might have brought a different outcome, or whether your
current circumstances might be better if only you had worked a little harder,
you are focusing on a counterfactual possibility.
Social psychologists are interested in these thoughts because they are
closely intertwined with affect, motivation, and a variety of social
judgments. Many people seem to think repeatedly about choices they
should have made, actions they might have taken, accidents they could have
avoided. Often, these thoughts make us feel even worse and may interfere
with subsequent coping.
Some research has shown that individuals suffering traumatic circumstances
cope significantly worse when they repeatedly think about what might have
been. On the other hand, such thoughts may also reveal to people
corrective action that is relevant and useful for future
conduct. People learn from their mistakes in part by mentally
simulating actions they should have taken. In this light,
counterfactual thinking might be seen as inherently useful, or
functional.
Current research in Professor Roese's lab focuses
on the costs and benefits of counterfactual thinking, their relation to
emotions and goals, and their links to various mental health outcomes, from
depression to schizophrenia. Ongoing research examines more generally
the processes by which people think about the past, prepare for the future,
and make "mid-course corrections" in their own social behavior.
Bias
in Legal Decisions
It is widely known that people are imperfect decision-makers. One form
of bias that is of particular relevance to legal contexts is called hindsight
bias, which is a tendency to believe that the past was more predictable and
knowable, when viewed with the benefit of hindsight, than it actually was in
foresight. The classic example is the Monday morning quarterback, who
feels certainty in knowing all the right moves that should have been made,
but fails to appreciate the complexity of events as they unfolded at the
time. Hindsight bias is a potential problem in legal judgments ranging
from negligence to liability to medical malpractice.
Current research explores both the basic mechanisms underlying hindsight
bias, as well as its implications for such current issues as the use of
computer-generated video re-creations of crimes and accidents. These
idea have appeared in Roese (2004) and Roese, Fessel,
et al (2006), both available for download below. A blurb on this
research appeared under the Editor's Choice section ("Misjudging
Priors") of Science in Mar-2006.
Papers
for Download
Roese, N. J., Park, S., Smallman, R.,
& Gibson, C. (2008). Schizophrenia involves impairment in the activation
of intentions by counterfactual thinking. Schizophrenia Research, 103, 344-345.
Epstude, K., & Roese, N. J.
(2008). The functional theory of counterfactual thinking. Personality and
Social Psychology Review, 12, 168-192.
Saffrey, C., Summerville, A., & Roese, N. J. (2008).
Praise for regret: People value regret above other negative emotions.
Motivation and Emotion, 32, 46-54.
Summerville, A., &
Roese, N. J. (2008). Dare to compare: Fact-based versus simulation-based
comparison in daily life. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 664-671.
Summerville, A., & Roese,
N. J. (2008). Self-report measures of individual differences in regulatory
focus: A cautionary note. Journal of Research in Personality, 42,
247-254.
Epstude, K., & Roese, N. J.
(2007). Beyond rationality: Counterfactual thinking and behavior regulation.
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 457-458.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(2007). Better, stronger, faster: Self-serving judgment, affect regulation,
and the optimal vigilance hypothesis. Perspectives on Psychological
Science, 2, 124-141.
Roese, N. J., & Sherman, J. W. (2007). Expectancy.
In A. W. Kruglanski & E. T. Higgins (Eds.), Social
psychology: A handbook of basic principles (Vol. 2). New York: Guilford
Press.
Roese, N. J.,
Summerville, A., & Fessel, F. (2007). Regret
and behavior: Comment on Zeelenberg and Pieters. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 17,
25-28.
Burrus,
J., & Roese, N. J. (2006). Long ago it was meant to be: The interplay
between time, construal and fate beliefs. Personality and Social
Psychology Bulletin, 32, 1050-1058.
Chen, J., Chiu, C. Y., Roese, N. J., Tam,
K., & Lau, I. Y. (2006). Culture and counterfactuals: On the importance
of life domains. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 37, 75-84.
Roese, N. J., Fessel,
F., Summerville, A., Kruger, J., & Dilich, M.
A. (2006). The propensity effect: When foresight trumps hindsight. Psychological
Science, 17, 305-310.
Roese, N. J., Pennington, G.,
Coleman, J., Janicki, M., Li, N., & Kenrick, D. T. (2006). Sex differences in regret: All for
love or some for lust? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 32, 770-780.
Roese, N. J., Sanna, L. J.,
& Galinsky, A. D. (2005). The mechanics of
imagination: Automaticity and control in counterfactual thinking. In R. R. Hassin, J. S. Uleman, & J.
A. Bargh (Eds.), The new unconscious (pp.
138-170). New York: Oxford University Press.
Roese, N. J., &
Summerville, A. (2005). What we regret most … and why. Personality and
Social Psychology Bulletin, 31, 1273-1285.
Roese, N. J. (2004). Twisted pair: Counterfactual
thinking and the hindsight bias. In D. Koehler & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell
handbook of judgment and decision making. Oxford: Blackwell.
Pennington,
G. L., & Roese, N. J. (2003). Regulatory focus and temporal perspective. Journal
of Experimental Social Psychology, 39, 563-576.
Pennington,
G. L., & Roese, N. J. (2003). Counterfactual thinking and regulatory
focus. In Spencer, S. J., Fein, S., Zanna, M. P.,
& Olson, J. M. (Eds.). Motivated social perception: The Ontario Symposium
(Vol 9, pp. 277-298). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(2003). Counterfactual thinking. In L. Nadel, D.
Chalmers, P. Culicover, B. French, & R.
Goldstone (Eds.), Encyclopedia of cognitive science (pp. 858-861). New
York: Macmillan.
Roese, N. J. (2001). The crossroads of affect and
cognition: Counterfactuals as compensatory cognitions. In G. Moskowitz (Ed.), Cognitive social psychology: The
Princeton Symposium on the legacy and future of social cognition (pp.
307-316). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Roese, N. J. (2000).
Counterfactual thinking and marketing. Psychology and Marketing, 17,
277-280.
Quinn, K. A.,
Roese, N. J., Pennington, G. L., & Olson, J. M. (1999). The
personal/group discrimination discrepancy: The role of informational
complexity. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 1430-1440.
Roese, N. J. (1999).
Counterfactual thinking and decision making. Psychonomic
Bulletin and Review, 6, 570-578.
Roese, N. J., Hur, T., & Pennington, G. L. (1999). Counterfactual
thinking and regulatory focus: Implications for action versus inaction and
sufficiency versus necessity. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 77, 1109-1120.
Roese, N. J., & Morris, M. W.
(1999). Impression valence constrains social explanations: The case of
discounting versus conjunction effects. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 77, 437-448.
Roese, N. J. (1997). Counterfactual thinking. Psychological
Bulletin, 121, 133-148.
Roese, N. J., & Maniar, S. D. (1997). Perceptions of purple:
Counterfactual and hindsight judgments at Northwestern Wildcats football
games. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 1245-1253.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1997). Counterfactual thinking: The intersection of affect and function. In
M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental
social psychology (Vol. 29, pp. 1-59). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1996). Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A
conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32,
197-227.
Olson, J. M., Roese, N. J., Meen, J., & Robertson, D. J. (1995). The
preconditions and consequences of relative deprivation: Two field studies. Journal
of Applied Social Psychology, 25, 944-964.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1995). Counterfactual thinking: A critical overview. In N. J. Roese & J.
M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of
counterfactual thinking (pp. 1-55). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1995). Functions of counterfactual thinking. In N. J. Roese & J. M.
Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of
counterfactual thinking (pp. 169-197). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1995c). Outcome controllability and counterfactual thinking. Personality
and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 620-628.
Roese, N. J. (1994). The functional basis of
counterfactual thinking. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66,
805-818.
Roese, N. J., & Jamieson, D.
W. (1993). Twenty years of bogus pipeline research: A critical review and
meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 114, 363-375.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1993a). Self-esteem and counterfactual thinking. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 65, 199-206.
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M.
(1993b). The structure of counterfactual thought. Personality and Social
Psychology Bulletin, 19, 312-319.
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